West Africa’s $3tn Energy Opportunity Hinges on Regional Power Market by 2035, Expert Says
West Africa could unlock an estimated $3 trillion in economic wealth by 2035 if countries move decisively towards an integrated regional energy market, an energy-sector expert has argued, highlighting the need to replace fragmented national systems with interconnected infrastructure, coordinated regulation and stronger cross-border electricity trade.
The argument comes as the region intensifies efforts to address persistent electricity shortages, high generation costs, inadequate transmission infrastructure and uneven access to energy. Across West Africa, countries possess widely differing energy resources, from Nigeria’s natural gas reserves and Ghana’s hydrocarbons to Côte d’Ivoire’s gas and hydropower resources and the region’s substantial solar potential.
The proposed regional approach would allow countries to draw more efficiently on those complementary resources rather than continuing to develop largely isolated national power systems.
While the $3 trillion wealth projection is an expert estimate and should not be treated as an independently verified forecast by the World Bank or ECOWAS, the broader case for regional energy integration is supported by major development institutions. The World Bank has estimated that a functioning regional power market could generate hundreds of millions of dollars in annual economic benefits, reduce electricity-generation costs and improve reliability across West Africa. (World Bank)
From National Grids to a Regional Energy System
For decades, electricity development in West Africa has largely followed national boundaries. Countries have built generation facilities and transmission networks primarily to serve domestic demand, even where neighbouring states have complementary energy resources or electricity deficits.
That model has increasingly come under pressure as population growth, urbanisation and industrialisation raise electricity demand.
A regional electricity market would allow surplus power generated in one country to be sold to another facing a supply deficit. In principle, a country with abundant hydropower, solar or gas-fired generation could export electricity when economically viable, while importing power when its own production is constrained.
The concept is being advanced through the West African Power Pool (WAPP), an ECOWAS-backed initiative designed to establish an interconnected electricity system and facilitate cross-border power trading.
The World Bank has described regional electricity trade as a way to reduce reliance on expensive small-scale oil- and diesel-fired generation while making greater use of gas, hydropower and renewable resources available across the region. (World Bank)
The institution has previously estimated that the economic benefits of a regional power market could reach $665 million annually, alongside a potential reduction of about one-third in the average cost of electricity generation in the region. (World Bank)
The newer $3 trillion projection therefore represents a much broader economic argument: reliable and affordable energy could serve as a foundation for industrialisation, manufacturing, digital services, agriculture, transport, mining and job creation.
Why Energy Integration Matters to West Africa
Electricity remains one of the region’s most significant constraints to economic development.
The World Bank noted that, when it launched its West Africa Energy Development Policy Financing Programme, only about half of the region’s population had access to electricity, while consumers who did have access faced some of the highest electricity prices globally. The institution also pointed to unreliable supply and significant power outages as major obstacles to productivity. (World Bank)
Fragmented power systems contribute to the problem.
Smaller economies may lack sufficient domestic demand to justify large investments in generation facilities. At the same time, countries with larger energy resources may struggle to monetise their capacity efficiently because transmission links and commercial arrangements with neighbouring countries remain incomplete.
A regional market can potentially address both problems.
Instead of every country attempting to maintain sufficient generation capacity to meet its own peak demand, interconnected systems can share resources. This can improve system efficiency and reduce the amount of expensive reserve capacity required by individual countries.
The World Bank has said that stronger regional electricity trade could lower generation costs and improve resilience by allowing countries to take advantage of different energy resources and demand patterns. (World Bank Blogs)
Infrastructure Is the Foundation
The success of a regional energy market depends heavily on infrastructure.
Transmission lines must connect national grids, power systems must be technically compatible, and electricity must be capable of flowing across borders safely and reliably.
The region has already invested heavily in this direction.
World Bank analysis has previously highlighted thousands of kilometres of transmission infrastructure under development, including projects designed to strengthen the corridor linking West African electricity systems. (World Bank Blogs)
More recently, the World Bank’s West Africa Regional Electricity Market Programme has emphasised the importance of a fully interconnected regional power market for developing cost-efficient energy resources, particularly renewable energy.
The Bank estimates that increased electricity trade could significantly reduce reliance on liquid-fuel generation. Its analysis indicates that tripling regional electricity trade could cut liquid-fuel-based generation by as much as 82 per cent, while generation costs could decline further as power systems become more integrated. (World Bank)
Those figures illustrate why regional integration is increasingly viewed as more than an infrastructure project. It is potentially a mechanism for restructuring the economics of electricity supply across the region.
Renewable Energy Could Change the Equation
The proposed regional market is also closely linked to West Africa’s energy transition.
The region possesses significant solar resources, while some countries have strong hydropower potential and others have substantial natural gas resources that can provide flexible generation as renewable capacity expands.
An interconnected system can make it easier to balance variable renewable generation.
For example, excess solar power generated during daylight hours could potentially be transferred to neighbouring markets, while hydropower or gas-fired generation could provide balancing capacity when solar production falls.
The ECOWAS Regional Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency has already advocated greater integration of renewable energy into the regional electricity market, including through initiatives such as the West Africa Clean Energy Corridor. (ECREEE)
The African Development Bank has likewise argued that regional-scale energy interventions can help stabilise interconnected grids, balance supply and demand and reduce investment risks for renewable-energy projects. (African Development Bank)
This could create a broader market for private investment in solar farms, transmission infrastructure, battery storage, gas infrastructure and other energy technologies.
Regional Integration Requires More Than Power Lines
However, building transmission infrastructure alone will not create a functioning regional electricity market.
There must also be confidence among participating countries and investors that electricity contracts will be honoured, payments will be made on time and disputes can be resolved transparently.
The World Bank has identified these institutional and commercial issues as critical barriers to deeper regional electricity trading.
Its reform programme has focused on improving payment mechanisms, strengthening commercial arrangements, encouraging least-cost regional investment decisions and increasing transparency around national utilities and electricity-sector investments. (World Bank)
Regulatory harmonisation is another challenge.
Different countries operate under different electricity tariffs, market structures, technical standards and regulatory regimes. Without greater coordination, electricity generated in one country may not move efficiently into another market even where physical transmission infrastructure exists.
For the $3 trillion opportunity to become credible, governments would therefore need to combine infrastructure development with predictable regulation, transparent pricing and stronger institutions.
ECOWAS Targets 2035 for Regional Energy Integration
The regional ambition has also gained political momentum.
ECOWAS has identified 2035 as a target for integrating the regional energy market, alongside broader objectives for regional trade and economic integration. Recent ECOWAS discussions have placed the energy market within a wider agenda aimed at increasing intra-regional commerce and strengthening regional cooperation. (APAnews – Agence de Presse Africaine)
The target is significant because it provides a timeframe within which governments, utilities, regulators and investors can align infrastructure and policy decisions.
But the political environment remains an important consideration.
West Africa has experienced significant political and security changes in recent years, including military takeovers in several countries and changes in their relationships with ECOWAS. These developments have the potential to complicate regional infrastructure projects and commercial cooperation.
A functioning energy market will require sustained cooperation even where political relationships become strained.
Nigeria’s Strategic Position
Nigeria would be central to any successful West African energy market.
As the region’s largest economy and one of its most significant energy-resource holders, Nigeria has the potential to serve as both a major electricity producer and a large electricity consumer.
Its natural gas resources could support regional power generation, while its geographical position gives it strategic importance for transmission links connecting different parts of West Africa.
The country is already connected to regional energy infrastructure, including the West African Gas Pipeline, which facilitates gas flows between Nigeria, Benin, Togo and Ghana. (ScienceDirect)
For Nigeria, greater regional energy integration could create new export opportunities while strengthening the commercial case for investments in gas processing, power generation and transmission.
But Nigeria would also need to address its own domestic electricity-sector challenges, including generation constraints, transmission limitations, distribution losses and the financial sustainability of electricity markets.
The Economic Prize Goes Beyond Electricity
The central argument behind the $3 trillion projection is that energy is an economic multiplier.
Reliable electricity can lower production costs for manufacturers, improve the productivity of small businesses, support cold-chain infrastructure for agriculture and healthcare, expand digital services and make mining and industrial projects more commercially viable.
It can also reduce dependence on diesel generators, which remain widely used by businesses and households across countries where grid supply is unreliable.
For investors, a larger regional electricity market could create economies of scale that individual national markets cannot always provide.
For governments, it could help attract private capital into infrastructure while improving energy security.
For citizens, the most immediate potential benefit would be more reliable and affordable electricity.
Turning the Projection Into Reality
The $3 trillion figure should ultimately be understood as an expression of the economic potential associated with deeper regional energy integration rather than a guaranteed financial return.
Unlocking that potential will require sustained investment, political cooperation and institutional reform.
Governments must accelerate transmission projects, strengthen national utilities, establish credible cross-border payment systems and harmonise electricity-market regulations. Regional institutions will also need mechanisms capable of managing disputes and protecting the commercial interests of both electricity exporters and importers.
Private investors, meanwhile, will require confidence that infrastructure projects can generate predictable returns over long periods.
The region also faces the challenge of ensuring that the transition to cleaner energy does not leave countries dependent on expensive imported technologies or create new inequalities in access.
West Africa therefore stands at a strategic crossroads. It possesses significant energy resources but continues to experience severe energy deficits. The difference between those two realities is largely a question of infrastructure, investment, governance and regional cooperation.
If countries can move beyond isolated national projects towards a genuinely interconnected energy market, the benefits could extend far beyond electricity.
The 2035 regional energy-market target offers an important deadline. Whether the much-discussed $3 trillion opportunity materialises will depend on what governments and investors do between now and then.
For Wengglobal, the central issue is not simply the size of the projected wealth. It is whether West Africa can build the institutions, infrastructure and trust required to turn its considerable energy resources into a reliable engine of regional economic growth.
Sources
- World Bank – Electricity Trade to Unlock Affordable and Reliable Electricity in West Africa
- World Bank – Regional Electricity Trade, Key to Unleashing West Africa’s Power
- World Bank – West Africa Regional Electricity Market Programme
- ECOWAS Regional Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency – Building the Regional Energy Market for an Equitable Energy Transition
- African Development Bank – West Africa Regional Energy Programme
- ECOWAS developments reported by African Press Agency
