Reported Simon Daniel Yusuph l journalist at wengglobal
Nasarawa State Governor Abdullahi Sule has attributed the All Progressives Congress’ (APC) defeat in the August 15, 2026 Osun State governorship election partly to what he described as the intervention of “Abuja politicians”, while arguing that the incumbent advantage enjoyed by Governor Ademola Adeleke played a decisive role in the outcome.
Sule made the assessment on Tuesday during a press briefing in Lafia, Nasarawa State, where he reflected on the APC’s loss and the broader political implications of the result ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections.
The governor maintained that the defeat should not be interpreted as a rejection of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu or the APC-led Federal Government. Instead, he argued that the result demonstrated the considerable political advantage enjoyed by a sitting governor during a state election.
According to reports by TheCable and Arise News, Sule said the APC would have had a better chance of winning Osun had some politicians from Abuja not descended on the state shortly before the election. He also argued that the influence available to an incumbent governor should not be underestimated in electoral contests. (TheCable)
His comments have introduced a fresh layer to the post-election debate within the governing party, as APC leaders and supporters examine why their candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, was unable to defeat Adeleke despite the party’s political machinery and the support of prominent national figures.
Adeleke defeats APC candidate by 66,252 votes
The Independent National Electoral Commission’s declared result gave Adeleke, who contested under the Accord Party platform, 511,067 votes, while APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji secured 444,815 votes.
The margin was 66,252 votes.
The African Democratic Congress candidate, Najeem Salaam, finished third with 17,180 votes.
Adeleke also won 19 of Osun State’s 30 local government areas, while Oyebamiji carried the remaining 11. The figures illustrate that although the APC retained substantial support across the state, it could not overcome Adeleke’s statewide advantage. (TheCable)
The result was particularly significant because Adeleke was seeking another term as the sitting governor, while Oyebamiji entered the contest as the APC’s candidate seeking to return the party to the Osun Government House.
The election was consequently viewed as both a referendum on Adeleke’s administration and a test of the APC’s ability to reclaim a state it had previously controlled.
Sule’s argument over incumbency
At the centre of Sule’s post-election assessment is the concept of incumbency.
The Nasarawa governor argued that a sitting governor possesses substantial political leverage that opposition candidates must overcome.
He said the Osun result demonstrated the strength of that advantage, suggesting that the ability of an incumbent to mobilise political structures and maintain visibility across a state can have a major impact on an election.
“The power of a sitting governor is not something you can joke around,” Sule said, according to TheCable. He argued that this was the message sent by the Osun election. (TheCable)
Arise News similarly reported that Sule believed Adeleke’s incumbency was a major factor behind the outcome and cautioned against interpreting the result as a direct verdict on the Tinubu administration. (Arise News)
The argument reflects a familiar feature of Nigerian electoral politics. Incumbent governors often have greater name recognition, established political networks and direct access to state-level structures than challengers.
However, incumbency is not an automatic guarantee of victory.
The history of Nigerian elections contains numerous examples of sitting governors and governing parties losing elections, including Adeleke’s own victory over the then-incumbent APC governor Gboyega Oyetola in the 2022 Osun election.
‘Abuja politicians’ blamed for APC setback
Sule’s reference to “Abuja politicians” has become one of the most notable elements of his assessment.
He argued that the intervention of national-level politicians shortly before the election contributed to the APC’s difficulties.
The governor did not present the claim as an indictment of President Tinubu. Instead, he separated the Osun result from the performance of the Federal Government, maintaining that the APC’s loss should not be treated as evidence that voters had rejected the President.
The comments effectively place some responsibility for the defeat on internal political strategy and the way national party actors engaged with the Osun contest.
Such an assessment could fuel further discussion within the APC about campaign coordination, local political structures and the relationship between national party leaders and state-level stakeholders.
For a governing party preparing for a much larger electoral contest in 2027, those questions carry considerable importance.
APC rejects Osun election result
The APC has rejected the outcome of the election, adding another dimension to the political aftermath.
According to Arise News and TheCable, the party disputed the result even as President Tinubu congratulated Adeleke following the declaration. (TheCable)
The rejection means that the post-election political conversation is not solely about campaign strategy or incumbency.
Questions surrounding the conduct of the election, the performance of political parties and the integrity of the electoral process are also likely to remain part of the public debate.
For the APC, however, the immediate political challenge is broader than the disputed result. The party must assess why it was unable to convert its organisational strength into a statewide victory against an incumbent who had faced criticism during the campaign.
What the figures reveal
The numerical outcome provides important context.
Adeleke’s 511,067 votes represented a substantial statewide base, while Oyebamiji’s 444,815 votes showed that the APC remained highly competitive.
The 66,252-vote difference was significant, but it was not large enough to suggest that the APC had been completely marginalised in Osun.
Indeed, Oyebamiji won 11 local government areas.
The APC’s performance therefore points to a divided electoral map rather than a total collapse of its support.
The challenge for the party is determining why its support in those areas did not translate into enough additional votes elsewhere to close the gap.
Adeleke’s success in 19 local governments suggests that his political network remained effective across a broad geographical area.
This is where Sule’s incumbency argument becomes relevant, although it remains his political interpretation rather than an independently established explanation for the result.
The 2027 implications
The Osun election is already being viewed through the lens of the 2027 general elections.
Although a state governorship election has its own dynamics, the result provides political parties with information about voter behaviour, campaign organisation and the strength of local structures.
For the APC, losing Osun despite the presence of national political figures is likely to encourage internal review.
The party may have to examine the effectiveness of its state-level organisation, candidate selection, campaign messaging and relationship with influential local stakeholders.
It will also need to determine whether the Osun result was driven principally by Adeleke’s personal popularity, his record in office, party realignment, voter preferences or a combination of factors.
The Sun had identified incumbency, party structure, voter turnout, geographical strength and the performance of third-force candidates as key factors likely to influence the Osun contest before voting took place. (The Sun Nigeria)
The final result suggests that these factors did indeed matter, although assigning the outcome to any single variable would oversimplify the election.
Adeleke’s political position strengthened
For Adeleke, the victory provides a renewed mandate and strengthens his political standing ahead of his second term.
His victory also demonstrates his ability to retain power despite facing a major challenge from the APC.
The governor’s political transition is particularly notable because he contested the 2026 election under the Accord Party rather than the Peoples Democratic Party platform with which he won the 2022 election.
The result therefore represents not only a personal electoral victory but also a demonstration of the strength of his political structure under a different party platform.
His supporters are likely to interpret the outcome as endorsement of his administration, while opponents are expected to continue scrutinising the policies and performance that shaped voters’ decisions.
The APC’s challenge goes beyond Osun
While Sule’s comments focus on Abuja politicians and incumbency, the APC’s Osun defeat may require a wider organisational assessment.
Political parties in Nigeria frequently face tensions between national leadership and grassroots structures.
National leaders bring resources, visibility and political influence, but local elections are often determined by relationships between candidates, ward-level organisers, traditional structures, community leaders and voters.
A campaign that is heavily driven from the national level can struggle if local structures do not feel sufficiently involved or if national interventions are perceived as disconnected from local political realities.
Sule’s comments appear to point directly at this tension.
His reference to Abuja-based politicians raises the question of whether national-level involvement helped or hindered the APC’s local campaign strategy.
That question will likely remain relevant beyond Osun.
Incumbency is powerful, but not absolute
The argument that incumbency gave Adeleke an advantage is politically significant, but it should not obscure the broader dynamics of the election.
Incumbent governors have access to greater public visibility and established political structures, but voters still retain the ability to reject them.
The 2022 Osun election itself demonstrated that incumbency can be overcome when opposition forces build sufficient electoral momentum.
Consequently, the APC’s task should not simply be to attribute the 2026 loss to Adeleke’s position as governor.
It must also examine the factors within its own campaign that may have contributed to the outcome.
Those could include candidate appeal, voter mobilisation, internal cohesion, campaign messaging, grassroots organisation and the ability to translate national support into local votes.
Sule defends Tinubu
Despite blaming Abuja politicians for part of the APC’s Osun defeat, Sule continued to defend President Tinubu.
He said the loss should not be interpreted as evidence that the President’s administration had failed.
The governor maintained that Tinubu had performed well and rejected the idea that those celebrating the APC’s defeat were necessarily celebrating a rejection of the Federal Government.
This distinction is politically important for the APC.
The party is likely to face intense scrutiny as it prepares for 2027, and a series of state-level electoral setbacks could potentially be interpreted as indicators of declining support for the administration.
Sule’s argument seeks to prevent that interpretation from becoming established.
Instead, he wants the Osun election understood primarily as a contest shaped by state-level political dynamics and the advantages enjoyed by an incumbent governor.
A warning for opposition parties
There is also a wider lesson in Sule’s analysis for opposition parties.
Removing an incumbent governor requires more than national popularity or a strong campaign.
Opposition parties must build credible local organisations, maintain voter contact and present candidates capable of competing with the incumbent’s political machinery.
The APC’s performance in Osun shows that a challenger can remain competitive while still falling short of victory.
The party’s 444,815 votes represent a substantial electoral base that could become politically important in future contests.
Wengglobal perspective
Governor Abdullahi Sule’s assessment of the Osun election has shifted attention from the immediate result to the internal political lessons for the APC.
His accusation that “Abuja politicians” contributed to the defeat and his emphasis on Adeleke’s incumbency provide one interpretation of why the ruling party failed to reclaim Osun.
But the available election figures present a more complex picture.
Adeleke won 19 of 30 local government areas and finished with 511,067 votes, while APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji secured 444,815 votes and won 11 local governments. (TheCable)
The numbers demonstrate a competitive election rather than an overwhelming rejection of the APC.
For Wengglobal, the most important lesson is that electoral defeat requires honest internal scrutiny.
The APC will have to determine whether its loss was primarily the result of incumbency, campaign strategy, internal coordination, voter preferences, local political structures or a combination of these factors.
Likewise, Adeleke’s victory should not be treated as an automatic guarantee of future political dominance. His second-term administration will ultimately be judged by governance, delivery and the ability to maintain the coalition that returned him to office.
The Osun result has therefore produced more than a winner and a loser. It has opened another debate about the power of incumbency, the influence of national politicians, the strength of grassroots structures and the evolving political calculations ahead of 2027.
For the APC, the challenge is to learn from the defeat rather than simply explain it.
For Adeleke, the responsibility is to justify the renewed mandate.
And for Osun voters, the real measure of the election will ultimately be whether the political contest produces better governance and tangible improvements in their daily lives.
Sources
- TheCable – Abuja politicians responsible for APC defeat in Osun poll, says Abdullahi Sule
- Arise News – Governor Sule Blames Abuja Politicians For APC’s Osun Defeat
- The Sun Nigeria – Osun: Five crucial factors that’ll decide Adeleke, Oyebamiji, Salaam’s race
- FactCheckHub – Osun 2026 election fact-checking and verification reports
- The Punch – Osun election coverage
