Reported by Weng Patrick Atokor l Journalist at Weng Global
Nearly three years after countries agreed to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, the world is approaching COP31 with oil, gas and coal still deeply embedded in the global energy system.
The contradiction is becoming one of the defining challenges for the climate talks scheduled for Antalya, Türkiye, in November. Governments have repeatedly endorsed stronger climate action, while fossil-fuel production and consumption remain high and, in several areas, continue to expand.
The latest warning comes as countries conclude a major pre-COP meeting in Fiji and Tuvalu, where Pacific nations have pushed for stronger action to limit global warming and greater financial support for countries already experiencing severe climate impacts.
COP31 President and Türkiye’s Climate Minister Murat Kurum said on October 8 that keeping global warming within the 1.5°C threshold is a matter of survival, particularly for vulnerable island nations facing rising seas, flooding and saltwater intrusion.
Yet the conference will take place against an energy landscape in which fossil fuels continue to dominate.
That gap between what governments say and what the global energy system is doing is likely to test the credibility of COP31.
From the COP28 pledge to the production reality
At COP28 in Dubai in December 2023, nearly 200 countries adopted the first global stocktake decision under the Paris Agreement. The agreement called on countries to accelerate action during the decade and to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner while accelerating renewable energy and energy efficiency.
The United Nations described the agreement as signalling the “beginning of the end” of the fossil-fuel era.
But the transition has not translated into a rapid decline in fossil-fuel production.
An analysis published by AFP on October 8 found that global production of oil, gas and coal has continued to rise since the 2023 agreement, even as renewable energy has expanded rapidly. Fossil fuels remained the dominant source of global energy in 2025.
The International Energy Agency’s latest global energy review provides a more complicated picture.
The IEA found that all major energy fuels and technologies grew in 2025. Global energy demand increased by 1.3%, while demand for oil, natural gas and coal also increased, although more slowly than in 2024. At the same time, low-emissions sources accounted for nearly 60% of the increase in global energy demand.
This means the energy transition is happening—but not yet quickly enough to displace fossil fuels at the scale required.
Coal remains a major obstacle
Coal provides one of the clearest examples of the difficulty of the transition.
According to the IEA, global coal production remained close to a record in 2025, reaching approximately 9.1 billion tonnes. China and India were responsible for much of the output, with both countries continuing to treat domestic coal production as important to energy security.
The IEA expects global coal production to decline slightly in 2026, but its projections show production remaining above 9 billion tonnes in 2027.
That is significant because coal is among the most carbon-intensive major energy sources.
The continued production reflects a fundamental problem facing governments: energy security frequently competes with climate objectives, particularly when countries are concerned about electricity supply, industrial production, employment, prices and dependence on imported energy.
The transition is real—but uneven
It would be misleading to suggest that nothing has changed since COP28.
Renewable energy is expanding at extraordinary speed.
The IEA reported that solar photovoltaic generation increased by about 600 terawatt-hours in 2025—the largest annual increase in electricity generation from any source outside major post-crisis rebounds. Solar alone accounted for around 70% of global electricity-generation growth that year.
Global renewable capacity additions also reached a record approximately 800 gigawatts in 2025, with solar accounting for about three-quarters of the additions.
Renewables combined are now approaching coal’s position in global electricity generation.
But electricity represents only part of the global energy system.
Transport, heavy industry, heating, aviation, shipping and other sectors still depend substantially on fossil fuels. The result is a transition that is advancing rapidly in electricity while moving more slowly across the wider economy.
That distinction is important.
A country can build large amounts of solar and wind capacity while simultaneously continuing to produce oil, gas or coal for transport, industry, exports and other uses.
The climate challenge therefore cannot be measured only by the growth of renewable electricity. It also requires a sustained reduction in fossil-fuel dependence.
Why COP31 faces a difficult negotiation
The prospects for a major new fossil-fuel agreement at COP31 appear limited.
AFP reported on October 8 that the words “fossil fuels” were not included by name in the final outcome of COP30 in Brazil, while the issue is not expected to form the centre of formal negotiations at COP31.
Instead, Türkiye is promoting electrification as a major part of its COP31 agenda.
The approach reflects an important change in the global climate debate: rather than focusing exclusively on negotiating another statement about fossil fuels, governments are increasingly discussing how to replace fossil-fuel demand through electrification, renewable energy, stronger grids and improved energy efficiency.
The European Union is also preparing to place energy security at the heart of its COP31 position, arguing that moving away from fossil fuels can reduce dependence on foreign energy suppliers while improving long-term energy security.
That argument could become increasingly important as countries deal with geopolitical instability and volatile energy markets.
The Pacific is demanding more than promises
The strongest political pressure ahead of COP31 is coming from countries that have contributed relatively little to historical global emissions but face some of the most immediate consequences of climate change.
During the pre-COP meetings in Fiji and Tuvalu, Pacific countries called for stronger emissions reductions, improved access to climate finance and greater protection for vulnerable communities.
Representatives from about 30 countries signed a declaration calling for “deep, rapid and sustained” emissions reductions.
Kurum, who visited Tuvalu during the pre-COP process, said the 1.5°C goal was a matter of survival for communities whose homes and cultures are threatened by rising seas.
Tuvalu consists of narrow, low-lying islands, making it particularly vulnerable to flooding and saltwater intrusion.
For Pacific governments, therefore, the climate debate is not simply about future targets. It is about whether communities will remain habitable.
That urgency is likely to shape the political atmosphere in Antalya.
The African dimension
For Africa, the fossil-fuel debate is more complicated.
The continent faces some of the world’s most severe climate vulnerabilities while contributing a relatively small share of historical global greenhouse-gas emissions. At the same time, many African countries still face major energy-access challenges and are seeking industrialisation, economic growth and improved living standards.
That creates a difficult policy balance.
African countries need more electricity, stronger industries and reliable energy supplies. They also need climate finance and technology that can allow them to expand access without repeating the most carbon-intensive development pathways followed by wealthier economies.
This is why the language of a just, orderly and equitable transition matters.
A transition that simply tells developing economies to abandon fossil fuels without providing affordable alternatives, financing, infrastructure and technology risks deepening existing inequalities.
But continued dependence on fossil fuels also exposes countries to price volatility, import dependence, stranded assets and increasing climate risks.
The solution is therefore not simply to choose between development and climate action.
The greater challenge is to make clean energy development sufficiently affordable, reliable and scalable to support development.
The production gap remains enormous
The 2025 Production Gap Report, produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute and partner organisations, highlights the scale of the problem.
It found that governments’ planned fossil-fuel production for 2030 is still more than double the level consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
The report estimates that planned production in 2030 could be around 500% above the 1.5°C-consistent level for coal, 31% above for oil and 92% above for gas.
These figures illustrate why climate pledges alone are insufficient.
If governments continue planning new production while simultaneously promising long-term emissions reductions, the world risks creating a widening gap between climate commitments and energy policy.
That does not mean every new energy project automatically contradicts climate goals. Countries have different energy systems, development needs and transition pathways.
But it does mean governments will increasingly have to explain how continued fossil-fuel investment fits within their climate commitments.
Energy security is changing the argument
The debate has also been transformed by geopolitical instability.
Countries that depend heavily on imported oil and gas have become increasingly concerned about supply disruptions and price shocks.
That has created an unusual convergence between climate policy and energy-security policy.
Renewable electricity generated domestically can reduce dependence on imported fuels. Electric vehicles can reduce oil demand. Energy efficiency can lower consumption. Battery storage and stronger electricity grids can improve resilience.
The IEA’s data show that clean-energy technologies are already reducing fossil-fuel demand. Since 2019, the deployment of solar PV, wind, nuclear power, electric cars and heat pumps has avoided more than 35 exajoules of annual fossil-fuel demand, equivalent to around 7% of global fossil-fuel use annually.
The challenge is to accelerate that trend.
What COP31 can realistically achieve
COP31 may not deliver a dramatic global agreement ending fossil-fuel production.
But that does not mean the summit is without significance.
The conference can strengthen implementation of existing commitments, accelerate renewable-energy deployment, improve electricity grids, expand climate finance and push countries towards credible national transition plans.
It can also keep pressure on governments to reconcile their energy policies with the Paris Agreement.
For Africa, climate finance will remain particularly important.
The continent needs investment not only in renewable power plants but also in transmission networks, storage, clean cooking, electric transport, resilient infrastructure and industrial systems capable of creating jobs.
A successful transition must therefore be measured not only by how quickly fossil fuels decline but also by how effectively clean energy expands access, supports economic development and protects vulnerable communities.
What happens next
COP31 is scheduled to take place in Antalya, Türkiye, from November 9 to 20, 2026, with the leaders’ summit planned for November 11 and 12.
The pre-COP discussions in Fiji and Tuvalu have already placed Pacific concerns, the 1.5°C target and climate finance firmly in the spotlight.
The next test will be whether those priorities survive the political negotiations in Antalya.
The central question is no longer whether renewable energy is growing. The evidence clearly shows that it is.
The harder question is whether clean energy can grow fast enough—and fossil-fuel dependence decline quickly enough—to bring the global energy system into line with the climate commitments governments have already made.
For Weng Global, that is the real significance of the fossil-fuel dilemma.
The world is not standing still. Solar power, wind energy, batteries, electric vehicles and other clean technologies are expanding at unprecedented rates.
But neither is the fossil-fuel economy standing still.
As COP31 approaches, governments face an increasingly difficult credibility test: whether their climate promises will finally begin to match the direction of their energy policies.
For countries on the front line of climate change, particularly vulnerable communities in Africa and the Pacific, the answer will matter far beyond the negotiating rooms of Antalya.
Weng Global – Stories beyond borders
Sources
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) — COP28 outcomes and global stocktake.
- International Energy Agency (IEA) — Global Energy Review 2026.
- International Energy Agency — Coal Mid-Year Update 2026.
- Reuters — COP31 President Murat Kurum’s October 8, 2026 remarks on the 1.5°C target and Pacific climate concerns.
- AFP — October 8, 2026 report on fossil-fuel production and COP31 prospects.
- Production Gap — 2025 Production Gap Report.
